Sales 101: the numbers, like sports
Internal. How an ad turns into money, who plays which position, and how to win more.
Internal. How an ad turns into money, who plays which position, and how to win more.
An ad buys a chance. Each step after it either keeps the ball or loses it. The scoreboard is only the last step, but you win or lose at every step before it.
| Price | Sales | Money in | Ad cost per sale | Left after ads | Return on ads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $997 | 5 | $4,985 | $1,000 | −$15 | 1.0x · break-even |
| $1,997 | 5 | $9,985 | $1,000 | $4,985 | 2.0x |
| $4,997 | 5 | $24,985 | $1,000 | $19,985 | 5.0x |
Gets the ball in play cheap. $20 a lead here.
Turns a name into a prepared person. 1 in 5 here.
Chases the file down and closes. 1 in 10 here.
Sets what one win is worth. $997, $1,997 or $4,997.
All numbers are ad spend only. Pay, delivery and refunds come out of what is left (tab 3).
Never guess. Every step has a number. The first number that is worse than it should be is where the break is. Fix that one step, then look again.
| What broke | Files | Sales | Money in | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing (the standard) | 50 | 5 | $24,985 | 5.0x |
| Leads cost $40, not $20 | 25 | 2.5 | $12,493 | 2.5x |
| Setter turns 1 in 10 leads into files, not 1 in 5 | 25 | 2.5 | $12,493 | 2.5x |
| Closer closes 1 in 20, not 1 in 10 | 50 | 2.5 | $12,493 | 2.5x |
| Two of those at once | 25 | 1.25 | $6,246 | 1.2x |
Pay comes out of what is left after ads. So there are only three ways to pay people more: a higher price, cheaper ads, or better players. Here is one sale at $4,997, at the standard numbers.
| One sale | $997 | $1,997 | $4,997 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ads (10 files × $100) | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| Closer, 15% of the sale | $150 | $300 | $750 |
| Setter, $25 for each prepared file (10 per sale) | $250 | $250 | $250 |
| Left for delivery and profit | −$403 | $447 | $2,997 |
The setter does not score the sale, so we do not grade them on sales. Their product is a prepared person: every sub-product done before the closer takes the file. Until then, the person is not ready.
Prepared files handed over per week, with every box ticked.
How many of their files actually show up or pick up.
Under 5 minutes wins. The first one to reach them usually gets them.
The closer marks each file ready or not ready. That is the setter's grade.
The file is handed over, and now the closer owns it. It does not have to be a meeting: the closer chases the person down, by call, text or video, and gets the deal done. The grade is wins above replacement: how many more sales they get than an average closer would from the same files.
| Closer | Close rate | Out of 10 | Sales | Wins above replacement | Money above replacement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Replacement level | 1 in 10 | 1.0 | 10 | 0 | $0 |
| Solid | 1 in 7 | 1.4 | 14 | +4 | +$19,988 |
| Great | 1 in 4 | 2.5 | 25 | +15 | +$74,955 |
Because the steps multiply, small gains stack. Make each of the three steps 20% better and the result is 73% better, not 60%.
| Step | Standard | Better | How |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost per lead | $20 | $16 | Test 5 hooks a week, keep the winner; use show clips as ads; retarget viewers |
| Lead to file | 1 in 5 | 1 in 4 | Reach them in 5 minutes; AI bot on every opt-in; a short video from you before the call |
| File to sale | 1 in 10 | 1 in 8 | Files 100% done; the closer reads the note first; chase for 7 touches; same-day follow-up |
| Result on $5,000 at $4,997 | 5 sales · $24,985 | about 9.8 sales · $48,800 | Every step a little better, nearly double the money |
Once one $5,000 round works, growth is doing more rounds without breaking a step. The thing that breaks first is almost never the ads. It is the people behind them.
| One closer | Per day | Per month | Sales at 1 in 10 | At $4,997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Works about 6 files a day, 22 days | 6 | 132 | 13 | about $65,000 |
So one closer can handle roughly $13,000 of ads a month at $100 a file. Spend more than that without another closer, and the extra files go cold and the numbers drop.
Three phases. First you run it yourself with Grok and Claude doing the checklist. Then a setter takes the seat and you watch the numbers. Then a closer, and you turn the ads up. Your real numbers are first, because they decide what to fix.
About $25 a day so far, on an $80 a day budget.
52 leads. Record deal and blue check ads did almost all of it.
63% booked a call on their own. That is very high.
Your "files" cost a tenth of the $100 in the examples.
| Setter sub-product | Status today | Who does it |
|---|---|---|
| Their situation written down | ✅ Done on the apply page (what they do, their world, shows they like) | The apply page |
| A time is set | ✅ 63% self-book | The calendar |
| They saw the plan | ✅ Plan page built for every booking, and views are counted | rs-booked-call, automatic |
| Reminders sent | ✅ Emails before the call | Automatic |
| The handoff note | ✅ The plan page is the note | Automatic |
| Reached within 5 minutes by a person or bot | 🟡 Emails only, no text or call | Grok or Claude texter, then the setter |
| The money question (what they sell, can they invest $997) | 🟡 Only about 3 in 10 answer "what do you sell" | Add one budget question to the booking form, setter confirms |
| Decision maker on the call | ❌ Not asked | One question on the booking form |
| Show or no-show marked after the call | ❌ 6 of 30 marked | You, then the setter, same day |
So most of the setter's job is already automated. What is left is the human part: the first text, the money and decision-maker check, the confirm, and marking what happened.
Someone who already "does social media" can do this: they live on their phone, they text well, and they like people. You give them the hat, the checklist and the numbers.
Plus $10 for every booked call that shows up. Contractor, set hours.
Confirm text, money and decision-maker check, reminders, outcome marked.
Files done, show rate, minutes to first touch, closer-confirmed.
Read what the AI texter says, fix it, take over when someone is warm.
Once a show rate and a close rate are known, add a closer (or keep closing yourself) and raise the budget. Leads usually cost more as you spend more, so these assume your cost per booking rises.
| Ads per day | Month spend | Cost per booking | Bookings | Shows (40%) | Sales (1 in 10 shows) | At $997 | Return | Closers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80 (now) | $2,400 | $10 | 232 | 93 | 9 | $9,270 | 3.9x | 1 |
| $150 | $4,500 | $13 | 346 | 138 | 14 | $13,780 | 3.1x | 1 to 2 |
| $300 | $9,000 | $16 | 563 | 225 | 22 | $22,430 | 2.5x | 2 |
The 40% show rate and 1-in-10 close rate are guesses until Phase 1 measures them. Each point of show rate you win back is worth more than any budget increase: at $80 a day, a 60% show rate instead of 40% adds about $4,600 a month for free. Then the season sale on top ($9,997) is where the real money is.
Ad → opt-in → the setter's sub-products (with the AI bots) → the file → the closer chases it down → the sale. Change any number below and see the whole game.
| Step | Takes in | Makes (the sub-product) | Who | The number that grades it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Ad | Money | A lead (a name and contact) | Media buyer | Cost per lead |
| 2 · Apply page | A lead | An application (their answers) | The page | Lead → application % |
| 3 · Calendar | An application | A booked file (self-booked or setter-booked) | Calendar + setter | Application → booked % |
| 4 · Setter + bots | A booked file | A file 100% done (money, decision maker, plan seen, confirmed) | Setter, AI texter | % of files 100% done |
| 5 · Show | A file 100% done | A person in front of the closer | Setter (reminders) | Show rate |
| 6 · Closer | A person who showed | A sale (cash collected) | Closer | Close rate on shows |
| 7 · Season | A sale | A season client ($9,997) | You + closer | % of sales who take the season |
The weakest step compares each rate to a healthy target: application 80%, booked 40%, done 90%, show 50%, close 15%.
The math says you should be close. At $10 a file, $5,000 buys 500 files. At 1 in 10 and $4,997, that is 50 sales and about $250,000. Even at $997 it is about $50,000. So when the money is not there, the ads are not the problem. One of the steps after them is leaking: